NZ Polling Tracker — Final Six Months Before the 2023 Election
Every published poll from late April 2023 through election day, 14 October 2023, with the actual election result plotted as the final point so you can see how the last polls compared to reality. Hover for exact figures; click a party name to toggle its line.
Guardian Essential, The Post/Freshwater Strategy, and one Talbot Mills reading (30 May–6 Jun) are omitted — none of them reported a figure for TOP.
Reading the ending: the final four polls before election day, plus the result itself, cluster noticeably higher for National (34.5–38%) than the mid-campaign average — a genuine late swing, since it shows up across different houses in the same fortnight, not just one pollster's noise. ACT's mid-campaign spike to 18% in the Roy Morgan poll spanning 31 Jul–27 Aug coincides with the Kiri Allan resignation and general Labour disarray, and partly unwound by election day as NZ First kept climbing instead.